Thursday, January 17, 2013

Making Decisions

             Hello everyone I recently become aware some of you out there have the inability for decision making.May be I can help "Stop making decision's ".  "Right?" Most decisions can be put into two categories  normative or prescriptive,  it is the idea of being  concerned with identifying the best decision to take in practice, there are situations in which "best" is not necessarily the maximal, or optimum which may also include values in addition to maximum, but within a specific or approximateive range, assuming an ideal decision maker who is fully informed, able to compute with perfect accuracy, and fully rational. The practical application of this prescriptive approach is how people ought to make decisions this is called decision analysis, its  aimed at finding tools, methodologies and software to help people make better decisions. this is called a decision support system.
          Since people usually do not behave in ways consistent with axiomatic rules, often their own, leading to violations of optimality, Its here that I realized that there is a related idea of two things  there, called a positive or descriptive disciplines, So  by  attempting to describe what people will actually do. Since the normative, optimal decision often creates a hypotheses for testing against actual behaviors, the two fields are closely linked. Furthermore it is possible to relax the assumptions of perfect information, rationality and so forth in various ways, too  produce a series of different prescriptions or predictions about ones behavior, allowing for further thought  of this kind of decision making that occurs in practice. The idea of expected value is that, when faced with a number of actions, each of which could give rise to more than one possible outcome with different probabilities, the rational procedure is to identify all possible outcomes, So in determining their values positive or negative and the probabilities that will result from each course of action, and multiply the two to give an expected value. The action to be chosen should be the one that gives rise to the highest total of expected value
           However some of you cant even ,with all those factors taken into account, the  human behavior, again deviates greatly from the predictions of prescriptive decision making My brother said it best, Some don't need to think, it causes stupid to make believe they know something. So to be rational and not complaisant one should consider not making decisions based on stupid idea logistics .Get more educated and then maybe you will have the ability to decide that your opinion may have a value that is not less than the ability of a pea .
                               "Nothing is more important than our word, it truly is our only value"

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